Reading the Tea Leaves

According to Interfax:
“Russia's foreign trade surplus widened to $151.6 billion in January-November from $129.3 billion in the same period of last year, the Federal Customs Service said. Foreign trade turnover grew a tentative 29% year-on-year to $392.9 billion in the eleven-month period, including growth of 29.8% to $334.7 billion in trade with non-CIS countries and growth of 24.6% to $58.2 billion in trade with the CIS.”

We won’t give our secrets of analysis away but lets try and read into the numbers here. Let’s assume the price of oil has fallen by 15% and profits from exporting energy have decreased by 15-25%. Looking at the previous stated numbers I see a smaller profit, but certainly nothing that alarms me. I’ll take another look when prices get into the 40’s per barrel, but it’s still looks good folks.