Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Typically, we don’t like to engage in discussion concerning things that are purely political, but eventually, all political changes impact business. Recently there was a major protest in Moscow involving several opposition parties opposed to the crackdown on democracy enacted by the Kremlin. It is true that the Kremlin enjoys an approval rating of around 80%, but I think there could be cracks starting to show in the armor. After the March 2nd election, price controls will be lifted sometime in spring, possibly beginning the “winter of the Russian citizen’s discontent”. Even with rising oil prices, projected Federal surpluses are going to decline, how fast depends upon how many of the promises in spending they keep and the actual price of oil. The current account surplus is scheduled to be wiped out by 2010 and if there are not reforms to the legal system and increased transparency, it is unlikely global investors will keep pouring money into Russia. If these protests start to spread even after the elections the government is going to have two choices with each having consequences. First they may decide to crush protest ruthlessly like Tianemen Square in China. This would have serious consequences for the economy as global investors seek to pull their money out of an unstable environment (like Venezuela) and all the bonds the government is counting on to improve the country might have trouble finding buyers, this is only a small amount of complications that could arise from this strategy. Then they could seek a compromise position after elections by voicing themselves (at least if only in language) the things the opposition is most vocal about. Ultimately, this might only serve to delay the inevitable. One thing is certain, stagnation is not a viable option in a continuously changing world.