Wednesday, December 17, 2008

The Russian equity markets are up over 20% off their lows, but for this momentum to sustain itself and continue into the future, there must be several things fall into place. Firstly, global commodities (including energy) must stabilize and demand must return. There was some overproduction when energy prices were at their height and an equilibrium must be reached, in other words, current inventories must be brought down. Secondly, sooner or later people will look around and recognize the permanent reality of a weaker dollar, and when this happens it will only compound the effect of rising commodities as they are still priced in dollars. Thirdly, people must emotionally learn to deal with a changed world and realize it is different than it used to be, but the world will not end anytime soon, they must break out of their paralysis of thought and action they are in. I don’t think all these things will happen in the next week, but, it is realistic to assume all will happen in the near to intermediate future, and when they do, a gradual price increase in commodities might give way to a sudden meteoric rise.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

$ will be 35-37 rubles next year. Pragmatic Russians would be buying $s and spirling the inflation in ru.